On December 1, 2018, President Donald Trump announced his intention to formally terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2019. Addressing the press aboard Air Force One, Trump stated that he will terminate the agreement within six months in an effort to get the U.S. Congress to move on implementing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA): “And so Congress will have a choice of the USMCA or pre-NAFTA, which worked very well.” In accordance with NAFTA Article 2205, “A party may withdraw from this Agreement six months after it provides written notice of withdrawal to the other Parties.” While the president can announce his intention to withdraw from the agreement and even deliver written notice of termination, it remains open for debate if congressional approval is required for complete termination to take effect.
These comments set the stage for a showdown with congressional leaders on the passage of the USMCA and whether it can be done within the president’s desired timeline. Senator Ron Wyden, the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, issued a statement shortly after the USMCA was signed on November 30, 2019 indicating that he still has some concerns about the negotiated USMCA: “Over the coming months I will push to see that these concerns are addressed before Congress considers this proposal.” To implement the USMCA, a majority in each chamber of Congress is required to pass the law; as a result of the mid-term congressional elections in November, Trump will need bipartisan support to obtain that majority.